Latest developments in climate modelling
The evidence is becoming ever-more clear: to provide credible scientific advice that underpins policy, we need to analyse all major parts of the Earth system, including the atmosphere, biosphere and oceans. Changes in climate depend on complex interactions between a range of Earth system elements. At the moment, computer models of the Earth system are the best tools we have for investigating and quantifying these relationships.
Having undergone a series of upgrades, the Met Office Hadley Centre's state-of-the-art computer model - HadGEM2-ES - now includes parts of the Earth system that were not represented in our previous climate models. And it is only now that the importance of these components is being fully tested. The new model is allowing us to consolidate our understanding of how climate works and improve the quality of our climate projections. The first results have been published and are reflected in the latest IPPC report.
The new model is being used to provide a more comprehensive analysis, building on previous work, to address science questions that affect policy. Our new model includes many important Earth system processes, but some are still to be added. So, while the science of climate projection is advancing, it is still far from complete.
In parallel with this development we have also been developing the core atmosphere and ocean models. The resulting model - HaGEM3 - incorporates improvements in representing the day-to-day weather and climate variability including seasonal predictability.
Please note that the information will not be divulged to third parties, or used without your permission